Research

Publications

  1. The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy, joint with Tim Besley and Hannes-Felix Mueller. Journal of the European Economics Association, Volume 13, Issue 2, pages 203 – 239, April 2015.
     Broader coverage: Washington Post, Financial Times, Foreign Policy, VoxEU, IGC, Quartz.
    Replication files
  2. Group Lending Without Joint Liability, joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh Ghatak. In Journal of Development Economics, pages 217-236, May 2016.
  3. Take what you can: property rights, contestability and conflict, joint with Samuel Marden, Economic Journal, Volume 127, Issue 601, 757–783, May 2017.
    Non-technical summary: Vox Lacea
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
  4. On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution, joint with Rabah Arezki and Frank Pisch, Journal of International Economics, Volume 107, 34–59, July 2017.
    Non-technical summary: US Politics and Economics
  5. Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis, joint with Sascha Becker and Dennis NovyEconomic Policy, 32(92), 601-650, October 2017.
      Broader coverage:  The GuardianEl DiarioIndy 100,  Folha de S.Paulo, The Canary, Le Monde, The Economist, Modkraft, New York Times.
    Non-technical summary: LSE PoliticsVoxEU
     Replication files
      Presentation slides
  6. Market Structure and Borrower Welfare in Microfinance, joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh Ghatak,  Economic Journal, Volume 128, Issue 610 May 2018 Pages 1019-1046.
    Replication files
  7. More than an Urban Legend: The long-term socio-economic Effects of Unplanned Fertility Shocks, joint with Amar Shanghavi and Oliver Pardo, Journal of Population Economics, October 2018, Volume 31, Issue 4, pp 1125–1176.
     Broader coverage: Centre Piece
  8. Commercialization and the Decline of Joint Liability Microcredit joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh GhatakJournal of Development Economics,  Volume 134, September 2018, Pages 209-225.
    Replication files
  9. Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined, joint with Eleonora AlabreseSascha Becker and Dennis Novy, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 56, January 2019, Pages 132-150.
  10. Did Austerity Cause Brexit?,  American Economic Review, November 2019, 109(11), 3849–3886.
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
    Broader coverage: 20Minutes, ApacheAlJazeera, Alternatives Economiques, AtlanticoBloomberg, BarronsBrookings, BoingBoing, CanaryCity AM, De Groene Amsterdammer, De MorgenDe StandardElDiario, ElDiario SurExpansion, Express (1), Express (2), Express (HR)Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungJornal do ComercioL’Adige, Le DevoirMerkurThe Guardian (1)The Guardian (2)The Guardian (3), The Guardian (4), The Guardian (5),  The Herald, The London Economic, The NationalHolyrood, Huffington Post (1), Huffington Post (2), Independent, iNewsLe Monde, Makronom (DE)New York Times (1), New York Times (2), NewtralPacific Standard MagazineSpiegel Online, TAZ.de, The ConversationThe New EuropeanThe Times (1), The Times (2), The Week MagazineVilággazdaságWall Street Journal (1), Wall Street Journal (2)Zeit Online.
    Non-technical summaries: Harvard Business ReviewLSE Brexit, LSE Brexit (2)VoxEU, INET, Social Market Foundation, UK in a Changing Europe, The Conversation.
  11. Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India, Journal of the European Economics Association, Volume 18, Issue 6, December 2020, Pages 3337–3375.
    Replication files 
    Presentation slides
    Broader coverage:  The World Bank, Feature StoryInternational Growth CentreIdeas for IndiaIndia at LSE, IndiaSpend, Sify.
  12. Coronavirus Perceptions And Economic Anxiety, joint with Lukas Hensel, Johannes Hermle, Christopher Roth, March 2020, forthcoming at Review of Economics and Statistics.
     Replication files
    Broader coverage: Wirtschaftswoche, Hargreaves and Landsdown, Phys.org, VoxEU, LSE US Politics, World Economic Forum.
  13. Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars, joint with Carlo Schwarz, Economic Journal, Volume 131, Issue 636, May 2021, Pages 1717-1741.
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
    Broader Coverage: Alternatives Economiques, Alternatives Economiques (2)AmericaEconomiaEl ComercioEl MundoFinancial Post, Financial Times (Chinese)Frankfurter AllgemeineHandelsblatt, iconomixLa RepubblicaThe Economist, The Economist FilmsWorld Economic Forum, Forbes, Seeking Alpha.
    Non-technical summary: USAPPVoxEU, CESifo
  14. Security Transitions, joint with Oliver Vanden Eynde, Pedro CL Souza and Austin L Wright, American Economic Review, 111 (7): 2275-2308.
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
    Broader Coverage: The Guardian, American Economic Association, Washington Post Monkey Cage, Les Echos (French).
    Non-technical summary: VoxEU
  15. Subsidizing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’s Eat-Out-to-Help-Out scheme, CAGE Working Paper, 2020, forthcoming at Economic Journal.
      Broader Coverage: ABC NewsAlKaleejBloomberg, Bisnis (Indonesian), CGTN (1), CGTN (2), El Periodico CatalunyaFD (Dutch), Fox News, Forsal (Polish), iNewsLa RepubblicaHuffington Post, Il Fatto QuotidianoThe Guardian (1), The Guardian (2), The Guardian (3), The Guardian (4), The Guardian (5), Nature, Der Spiegel (German), GloboThe Northern EchoThe Liverpool EchoThe News International, Sky News (1), Sky News (2), The ScotsmanPress and JournalReuters, Tagesspiegel, The TelegraphThe Independent (1), The Independent (2), The Independent (3), The Times,  The Times (1), The Times (2), The Times (3), mas reino unido, News 24, New Zealand HeraldMarketWatchHKET (Chinese), Wales Online,  WiredWeekendavisen (Danish).
  16. Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, joint with Thomas Graeber, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 118 Issue 33, 2021. A previous version circulated as Does Contact Tracing Work? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from an Excel Error in England, medrxiv pre-print, 2020.
    Broader Coverage: Financial Times (1), Financial Times (2), City AM, Sky News, The Guardian, MSN, MedscapeNews MedicalNeue Zuericher Zeitung (German), Le Monde (French), Die Welt (German), ZAP (Portugese), FocusTech (Italian), Svenske Dagblad (Swedish), Bloomberg School of Public Health Summary, Financial Times, Wired, Atlantic (French).

Working Papers

  1. Cohesive Institutions and Political Violence, joint with Stephan Kyburz, CAGE Working Paper, 2018, revised and resubmitted, Review of Economics and Statistics.
    Broader coverage: Center for Global Development
  2. Does Community Policing Build Trust in Police and Reduce Crime? Evidence from Six Coordinated Field Experiments in the Global South, joint with Graeme Blair, Jeremy Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Ahsan Farooqui, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Zulfiqar Hameed, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Fatiq Nadeem, Lily Tsai, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Anna Wilke, revised and resubmitted, Science.
  3. Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic, joint with Marc Witte, Lukas Hensel, Jon Jachimowicz, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Stefano Caria, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher P. Roth, Stefano Fiorin, Margarita Gómez, Gordon Kraft-Todd, Friedrich M. Götz, Erez Yoeli, NBER Working Paper, also as CEPR Working Paper and CAGE Working Paper, 2020, revised and resubmitted, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
     Broader coverage: Alternatives Economiques, BloombergEl Pauta, GallupJakarta Globe.
    Participate and see results: www.covid19-survey.org.
  4. Housing insecurity, homelessness and populism: Evidence from the UK, joint with Srinjoy Sen and Pedro CL Souza, CEPR Working Paper 14184 and CAGE Working Paper 444, December 2019, revise and resubmit, Journal of the European Economics Association.
     Broader Coverage: Policy in Practice, 24 Housing, The Economist, VoxEU.
  5. Terror and Tourism: The Economic Consequences of Media Coverage, joint with Tim Besley and Hannes-Felix Mueller. CEPR Working Paper, January 2020, under review.
     Broader coverage: VoxEU.
  6. De-escalation technology: the impact of body-worn cameras on citizen-police interactions, joint with Daniel Barbosa, Pedro CL Souza, Caterina Soto, CEPR Working Paper 581, 2021, under review.
    Broader coverage: Estado (1)  (Portugese), Estado (2) (Portugese), BBC (Portugese), Resolution Foundation, Folha (Portugese), Fantastico (Portugese).
  7. Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019, joint with Shizhuo Wang, 2020.
     Broader coverage: Financial Times, The Independent, Press and Journal, The Courier, Evening Express, Midlothian Review, ShetlandNews, Graeme Dey, SNP Galloway.
    Interactive visualization: www.brexitcost.org
  8. Has Eastern European Migration Impacted British Workers?, joint with Sascha O Becker, CAGE Working Paper, 2018.
     Broader coverage: The Conversation
  9. Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore? joint with Eleonora Alabrese, CESifo Working Paper, 2018.
    Broader Coverage: Business Insider, GraziaThe Independent, New York Times, The Irish Times.

Retired Papers

  1. Fracking Growth, CEP Working Paper 1278, 2014.
    Broader Coverage: RES, Britain in 2015,  LSE United States Politics Blog
  2. Did Eastern European immigration cause an increase in anti-European sentiment in the UK?, joint with Sascha O Becker.
  3. Why an EU Referendum? Why in 2016?, joint with Sascha O Becker.