Author: Thiemo
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Electoral surprises and business cycles
Surprise election outcomes can lead to unexpected changes in the incumbent government and the policy agenda. This column studies the economic impact of electoral surprises using a new dataset election polls and outcomes covering 233 elections across 51 countries. It finds that, in strong democracies, electoral surprises (defined as deviations between polling predications and election…
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On the role of private data in research
Note: this is a reposted version of a verbal intervention at the Economic Policy Panel meeting in 2021 discussing some institutional considerations in light of research work that was presented that leverages private data for research. The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented economic policy response across much of the world. A broad range of…
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Media’s Role in Economic Shocks: Unveiling the ‘Media Multiplier’
Negative events, from crime to pandemics, often trigger responses influenced or amplified by media coverage. Our collaborative work sheds light on this. Delve into the empirical concept—the ‘media multiplier’—where media magnifies the economic impact of adverse shocks. A Fresh Approach: Dyadic News DataTraditional media multiplier assessment focused on news timing. Our new paper innovates by…
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What I learned from doing research during the pandemic
Public inquiries into COVID-19 policy making can tell us a lot about how robust our society’s plumbing is and whether evidence-based policy making is a lived practice – let’s not waste that opportunity
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Contribution to the workshop “Beyond Neoliberalism and Neo-illiberalism: Economic Policies and Performance for Sustainable Democracy” at the New School
Let me tell you a little bit about my adult life as experienced through crises. In 2008, I moved to the UK, and the first crisis hit and was very apparent. The global financial crisis affected mounts of demography and my own economic outlook. It also resulted in an excessively large PhD cohort at the…