Research

Publications

  1. The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy, joint with Tim Besley and Hannes-Felix Mueller. Journal of the European Economics Association, Volume 13, Issue 2, pages 203 – 239, April 2015.
     Broader coverage: Washington Post, Financial Times, Foreign Policy, VoxEU, IGC, Quartz.
    Replication files
  2. Group Lending Without Joint Liability, joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh Ghatak. In Journal of Development Economics, pages 217-236, May 2016.
  3. Take what you can: property rights, contestability and conflict, joint with Samuel Marden, Economic Journal, Volume 127, Issue 601, 757–783, May 2017.
    Non-technical summary: Vox Lacea
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
  4. On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution, joint with Rabah Arezki and Frank Pisch, Journal of International Economics, Volume 107, 34–59, July 2017.
    Non-technical summary: US Politics and Economics
  5. Who Voted for Brexit? A Comprehensive District-Level Analysis, joint with Sascha Becker and Dennis Novy, Economic Policy, 32(92), 601-650, October 2017.
      Broader coverage:  The Guardian, El Diario, Indy 100,  Folha de S.Paulo, The Canary, Le Monde, The Economist, Modkraft, New York Times.
    Non-technical summary: LSE Politics, VoxEU
     Replication files
      Presentation slides
  6. Market Structure and Borrower Welfare in Microfinance, joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh Ghatak,  Economic Journal, Volume 128, Issue 610 May 2018 Pages 1019-1046.
    Replication files
  7. More than an Urban Legend: The long-term socio-economic Effects of Unplanned Fertility Shocks, joint with Amar Shanghavi and Oliver Pardo, Journal of Population Economics, October 2018, Volume 31, Issue 4, pp 1125–1176.
     Broader coverage: Centre Piece
  8. Commercialization and the Decline of Joint Liability Microcredit joint with Jon de Quidt and Maitreesh Ghatak,  Journal of Development Economics,  Volume 134, September 2018, Pages 209-225.
    Replication files
  9. Who Voted for Brexit? Individual and Regional Data Combined, joint with Eleonora Alabrese, Sascha Becker and Dennis Novy, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 56, January 2019, Pages 132-150.
  10. Did Austerity Cause Brexit?,  American Economic Review, November 2019, 109(11), 3849–3886.
    Replication files
    Presentation slides
    Broader coverage: 20Minutes, Apache, AlJazeera, Alternatives Economiques, Atlantico, Bloomberg, Barrons, Brookings, BoingBoing, Canary, City AM, De Groene Amsterdammer, De Morgen, De Standard, ElDiario, ElDiario Sur, Expansion, Express (1), Express (2), Express (HR), Financial Times, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Foreign Policy, Jornal do Comercio, L’Adige, Le Devoir, Merkur, The Guardian (1),  The Guardian (2),  The Guardian (3), The Guardian (4), The Guardian (5),  The Herald, The London Economic, The National, Holyrood, Huffington Post (1), Huffington Post (2), Independent, iNews, Le Monde, Makronom (DE), New York Times (1), New York Times (2), Newtral, Pacific Standard Magazine, Spiegel Online, Spiegel Online (2), TAZ.de, The Conversation, The New European, The Times (1), The Times (2), The Week Magazine, Világgazdaság, Wall Street Journal (1), Wall Street Journal (2), Zeit Online.
    Non-technical summaries: Harvard Business Review, LSE Brexit, LSE Brexit (2), VoxEU, INET, Social Market Foundation, UK in a Changing Europe, The Conversation.
  11. Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India, Journal of the European Economics Association, Volume 18, Issue 6, December 2020, Pages 3337–3375.
    Replication files 
     Presentation slides
    Broader coverage:  The World Bank, Feature Story, International Growth Centre, Ideas for India, India at LSE, IndiaSpend, Sify.
  12. Coronavirus Perceptions And Economic Anxiety, joint with Lukas Hensel, Johannes Hermle, Christopher Roth, March 2020, forthcoming at Review of Economics and Statistics.
     Replication files
    Broader coverage: Wirtschaftswoche, Hargreaves and Landsdown, Phys.org, VoxEU, LSE US Politics, World Economic Forum.
  13. Tariffs and Politics: Evidence from Trump’s Trade Wars, joint with Carlo Schwarz, Economic Journal, Volume 131, Issue 636, May 2021, Pages 1717-1741.
    Replication files
     Presentation slides
    Broader Coverage: Alternatives Economiques, Alternatives Economiques (2), AmericaEconomia, El Comercio, El Mundo, Financial Post, Financial Times (Chinese), Frankfurter Allgemeine, Handelsblatt, iconomix, La Repubblica, The Economist, The Economist Films, World Economic Forum, Forbes, Seeking Alpha.
    Non-technical summary: USAPP, VoxEU, CESifo
  14. Security Transitions, joint with Oliver Vanden Eynde, Pedro CL Souza and Austin L Wright, American Economic Review, 111 (7): 2275-2308.
     Replication files
     Presentation slides
    Broader Coverage: The Guardian, American Economic Association, Washington Post Monkey Cage, Les Echos (French).
    Non-technical summary: VoxEU
  15. Subsidizing the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’s Eat-Out-to-Help-Out scheme, Economic Journal, 2021.
      Broader Coverage: in 2020 and 2021 ABC News, AlKaleej, Bloomberg, Bisnis (Indonesian), CGTN (1), CGTN (2), El Periodico Catalunya, FD (Dutch), Fox News, Forsal (Polish), iNews, La Repubblica, Huffington Post, Il Fatto Quotidiano, The Guardian (1), The Guardian (2), The Guardian (3), The Guardian (4), The Guardian (5), Nature, Der Spiegel (German), Globo, The Northern Echo,  The Liverpool Echo, The News International, Sky News (1), Sky News (2), The Scotsman, Press and Journal, Reuters, Tagesspiegel, The Telegraph, The Independent (1), The Independent (2), The Independent (3), The Times,  The Times (1), The Times (2), The Times (3), mas reino unido, News 24, New Zealand Herald, MarketWatch, HKET (Chinese), Wales Online,  Wired, Weekendavisen (Danish), Byline Times, The Daily Express, The British Medical Journal (BMJ).
    in 2023: The Guardian, Mirror, Independent, Telegraph, The Financial Times, Metro.
  16. Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, joint with Thomas Graeber, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 118 Issue 33, 2021. A previous version circulated as Does Contact Tracing Work? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from an Excel Error in England, medrxiv pre-print, 2020.
    Broader Coverage: Financial Times (1), Financial Times (2), City AM, Sky News, The Guardian, MSN, Medscape, News Medical, Neue Zuericher Zeitung (German), Le Monde (French), Die Welt (German), ZAP (Portugese), FocusTech (Italian), Svenske Dagblad (Swedish), Bloomberg School of Public Health Summary, Financial Times, Wired, Atlantic (French), Liberation (French), La Libre (French).
  17. Cohesive Institutions and Political Violence, joint with Stephan Kyburz, Review of Economics and Statistics.
    Broader coverage: Center for Global Development
  18. Does Community Policing Build Trust in Police and Reduce Crime? Evidence from Six Coordinated Field Experiments in the Global South, joint with Graeme Blair, Jeremy Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Ahsan Farooqui, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Zulfiqar Hameed, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Fatiq Nadeem, Lily Tsai, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Anna Wilke, Science.
  19. Global Behaviors, Perceptions, and the Emergence of Social Norms at the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic, joint with Marc Witte, Lukas Hensel, Jon Jachimowicz, Johannes Haushofer, Andriy Ivchenko, Stefano Caria, Elena Reutskaja, Christopher P. Roth, Stefano Fiorin, Margarita Gómez, Gordon Kraft-Todd, Friedrich M. Götz, Erez Yoeli, NBER Working Paper, also as CEPR Working Paper and CAGE Working Paper, 2020, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 193, 473–496.
     Broader coverage: Alternatives Economiques, Bloomberg, El Pauta, Gallup, Jakarta Globe.
    Participate and see results: www.covid19-survey.org.
  20. Housing insecurity, homelessness and populism: Evidence from the UK, joint with Srinjoy Sen and Pedro CL Souza, CEPR Working Paper 14184 and CAGE Working Paper 444, December 2019, forthcoming, Journal of the European Economics Association.
     Broader Coverage: Policy in Practice, 24 Housing, The Economist, VoxEU.

Working Papers

  1. How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data, joint with Tim Besley and Hannes-Felix Mueller. CEPR Working Paper, January 2020, revise and resubmit Review of Economics & Statistics.
     Broader coverage: VoxEU.
  2. Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence up to 2019, joint with Shizhuo Wang, 2020.
     Broader coverage: Financial Times, The Independent, Press and Journal, The Courier, Evening Express, Midlothian Review, ShetlandNews, Graeme Dey, SNP Galloway.
    Interactive visualization: www.brexitcost.org
  3. De-escalation technology: the impact of body-worn cameras on citizen-police interactions, joint with Daniel Barbosa, Pedro CL Souza, Caterina Soto, CEPR Working Paper 581, 2021, under review.
     Broader coverage: Estado (1)  (Portugese), Estado (2) (Portugese), BBC (Portugese), Resolution Foundation, Folha (Portugese), Fantastico (Portugese). O Globo (Portugese), G1 (Portugese), O Globo (2) (Portugese), Impact BWC Adoption order.
  4. Pandemic Pressures and Public Health Care: Evidence from England, joint with Christopher Rauh, CAGE Working Paper 607.
    Broader coverage: Sky News, New Scientist, Free Radio, My London, The National, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (German), The Economist, Yahoo Finance, Brisbane Times, La Vanguardia (Spanish), Sydney Morning Herald.
  5. Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative: Evidence from a Natural Experiment, CAGE Working Paper 596, 2021.
    Broader coverage: The Times, The Economist, BBC Points West (Youtube), BBC.
  6. Who is NOT voting for Brexit anymore? joint with Eleonora Alabrese, CESifo Working Paper, 2018.
    Broader Coverage: Business Insider, Grazia, The Independent, New York Times, The Irish Times.

Retired Papers

  1. Fracking Growth, CEP Working Paper 1278, 2014.
    Broader Coverage: RES, Britain in 2015,  LSE United States Politics Blog
  2. Did Eastern European immigration cause an increase in anti-European sentiment in the UK?, joint with Sascha O Becker.
  3. Why an EU Referendum? Why in 2016?, joint with Sascha O Becker.
  4. Has Eastern European Migration Impacted British Workers?, joint with Sascha O Becker, CAGE Working Paper, 2018.
     Broader coverage: The Conversation