Month: September 2023
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Electoral surprises and business cycles
Surprise election outcomes can lead to unexpected changes in the incumbent government and the policy agenda. This column studies the economic impact of electoral surprises using a new dataset election polls and outcomes covering 233 elections across 51 countries. It finds that, in strong democracies, electoral surprises (defined as deviations between polling predications and election…
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On the role of private data in research
Note: this is a reposted version of a verbal intervention at the Economic Policy Panel meeting in 2021 discussing some institutional considerations in light of research work that was presented that leverages private data for research. The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented economic policy response across much of the world. A broad range of…