The invasion of Ukraine has caused a significant rise in energy prices in many parts of Western Europe.
To mitigate the impact of this price increase, policymakers have taken action in energy markets. The UK’s response, called the energy price guarantee (EPG), was not specifically aimed at helping those living in energy-inefficient properties, and it turned out to be less generous for them.
This research paper used detailed data and a documented research method to show that areas more affected by the energy price increase experienced a noticeable increase in burglaries and anti-social behaviour. Specifically, the energy price increase was responsible for a 6% to 10% rise in burglaries and a 9% to 24% increase in anti-social behaviour reported to the police between October 2022 and March 2023.
The study also looked at alternative policies and found that a more targeted energy support package or improving the energy efficiency of homes could have resulted in a much smaller increase in crime.
Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England, CAGE working paper no. 662/2023.
The invasion of Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in energy prices in much of Western Europe with policy makers actively intervening in energy markets to cushion the shock. The UK’s policy response stands out: the energy price guarantee (EPG) was entirely untargeted and is, in real terms, much less generous to those living in properties with low energy efficiency. Using granular data and following a documented research approach this paper documents that areas more exposed to the energy price shock saw a notable increase in burglaries and anti-social behaviour: the energy price shock is responsible for a 6 to 10 percent increase in burglaries and a 9 to 24 percent increase in police reported anti-social behaviour between October 2022 to March 2023 inclusive. A quantification of policy alternatives suggests that a more targeted energy support package and/or a more energy efficient housing stock could have resulted in a drastically less pronounced uptick in crime.
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Social Media Summary
Today, in England, millions of voters make a choice in their #LocalElections2023. It’s a good time to share some new research that is related to two policy issues that will have touched many people over the last year: the #energycrisis & #crime.
📰 https://t.co/t2rFfLllLh
🧵⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ClxPMwBY7C— Thiemo Fetzer 🇪🇺🇺🇦 – same handle elsewhere (@fetzert) May 4, 2023